Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
